AI: Where will developers come from?
In a world where AI writes all the code, how do we create new software developers?
Riddle me this batman, if no one will hire junior developers any more where will our senior developers come from in 5 years time?
It's January 2025 and tech jobs are still in the doldrums. Junior developers are told by everyone not to use AI or they won’t learn. But senior developers are benefitting from a significant productivity boost by using AI.
Early in 2024 I wrote that whilst AI might not take your job it will certainly affect the job market for software developers, and junior developers in particular. I think it’s also still true that if you care about learning something new, you shouldn’t use AI to just do it for you. You won’t learn anything.
The problem is, it is also true that as a senior developer using tools such as GitHub Copilot, Cursor or Windsurf results in increased productivity. There are many (flawed) studies (adverts?) out there claiming various levels of productivity increases by using AI. I won’t try and put a number on it, but between those studies, anecdata, and personal experience I’m pretty sure there is a decent performance improvement.
If I have a team of 5 software engineers working without AI and I need more engineering capacity, do I hire a junior dev? Or do I just pay $10 a month for a Copilot subscription for each of them? Or $500 a month for Devin. As someone running a business as well as writing code that’s a very real choice.
There’s a serious problem here though. What happens when my senior engineers retire or decide to go and live off grid and farm goats instead? Where am I going to find new senior software engineers if no one hired and trained any?
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